Gor Mahia: The Champions Go Marching On

Congratulations are in order for the 2015 league Champions, the Mighty K”Ogalo. 

Last night’s 1-0 win over Sony Sugar FC, courtesy of Innocent Wafula's first half strike was enough to all but confirm what everyone knew was coming. Winning the league with 4 games to go in modern times is no mean feat by itself. And in winning the league for the third consecutive season, records are already tumbling,  records that we will continue to revise as the season comes to an end because this is a history making team. However for now the following are worth noting:

Gor Mahia becomes the first team to win the league three consecutive times on two occasions since the league began in the early 60s. Only two other teams have won the league on three consecutive occasions before (AFC Leopards 1980-1982 and Ulinzi Stars (2003-2005) but Gor Mahia is the first team to do it twice (1983-1985 and 2013-2015). On both occasions they have done it in years ending with 3,4,and 5 – coincidence or planned?

Of course this was also its fifteenth league title, extending the lead over AFC Leopards’ to 2 trophies (or 3 trophies depending on your argument about 1971). They thus continue to be the most successful club in the Kenyan league with AFC Leopards and Tusker following. Below is the list of the most successful teams in the league in terms of trophies won

Team	Championships
Gor Mahia	15
AFC Leopards	13
Tusker FC	10
Ulinzi Stars	4
Re Union Nakuru All Stars Oserian	2

The only other clubs to have won the league trophy are Feisal, Utalii FC, Mathare United, Sofapaka, and Sony FC who all have a trophy each.

In winning the league in 2013, Gor Mahia only scored 32 goals. By the time of winning the league this year, they have already scored 54 goals (two awarded for the abandoned game). So  is this Gor Mahia team the best scoring league champions in this period? I went back to the records to dig this up.

Year	Champions	Goals Scored
2008	Mathare United	47
2009	Sofapaka	39
2010	Ulinzi Stars	37
2011	Tusker FC	34
2012	Tusker FC	39
2013	Gor Mahia	32
2014	Gor Mahia	43
2015	Gor Mahia	54*

With four to games still to play and with a rate of slightly over 2 goals per game, we can confidently say that this Gor Mahia side is the most free scoring team in modern times. At the current rate 60 goals is surely a possibility. 

They say Championship sides are built from the back – the defence.  Past Tusker FC teams have been fabled for their defences so I sought to find out where our current defence would rank among the championship winning sides. Here is how this side compares.

Year	Champions	Goals Conceded
2008	Mathare United	22
2009	Sofapaka	21
2010	Ulinzi Stars	16
2011	Tusker FC	17
2012	Tusker FC	14
2013	Gor Mahia	15
2014	Gor Mahia	21
2015	Gor Mahia	12*

As it stands, this is indeed the meanest defence of them all but Gor Mahia will need to concede not more than two goals in their remaining 4 games to keep the record ahead of the brewers.

I also had a look at the points tally previously held by Mathare United, and again, records are tumbling on that front.

Year	Champions	Points Tally
2008	Mathare United	63
2009	Sofapaka	59
2010	Ulinzi Stars	59
2011	Tusker FC	58
2012	Tusker FC	60
2013	Gor Mahia	60
2014	Gor Mahia	60
2015	Gor Mahia	66*

The big one remaining though is to see how far we can maintain the unbeaten league run. Currently the team is on a 28 game unbeaten run with the possibility of going the distance unbeaten. Only Western Stima, Muhoroni Youth, Tusker and Sofapaka stand on our way. 

Innocent Wafula celebrates the goal that secured the 2015 championship

Pic courtesy of Goal.com

The Green Army Set to Soldier On Against the Soldiers

This Sunday K’ogalo and its faithful followers The Green Army, make the 200 kilometers road trip to the agri-industrial town of Nakuru to face their only title challengers, Ulinzi Stars. By the end of 90 minutes they might be making the return trip having been confirmed the 2015 league champions. Indeed a win or draw will see them confirmed champions while a win for Ulinzi will see them retain a slim mathematical chance of upsetting the defending champions to the finish line. Gor Mahia has a 12 point lead over Ulinzi with a game in hand and so it will take something special, Gor Mahia losing all their remaining matches with Ulinzi winning all of theirs, for anyone to entertain the thought of Gor bottling it. Everyone knows it will take a miracle for that to happen.

With the championship more or less secured, what incentive is there for the Green Army? For K’ogalo the ambition is now to finish the league unbeaten and with Tusker wobbling, Sofapaka weakened and having dispatched off Bandari the last time out in Mombasa, Ulinzi Stars remain the only side perceived as a threat to this unbeaten run. Indeed over the last couple of years, actually since the title run-in in 2010, there has been no love lost between the soldiers and the green army.  For the players and the technical bench, it is an opportunity to etch their names alongside the great Gor Mahia teams of the mid 80s – something that older fans will however have reservations about.  And having already hit the 20 goals margin for Gor Mahia this season (15 in the league and 5 in CECAFA), Michael Olunga will be itching to not only challenge for the golden boot but stake his claim to be among the best strikers the club has seen – again, something that older fans will have reservations about.

Encounters between the two sides have been tense and often physical affairs, with very few goals flying in. There have only been 19 goals in 15 league games between the two sides since 2008, with Gor netting 12 of those. Only Tusker and Sofapaka have prevented K’Ogalo from scoring more in the league (teams that have played more than 10 games) in this period.  You have to go back to 23 August 2009 to witness the last time any of these teams scored more than 2 goals against each in any competition,  a George Odhiambo “Blackberry”  double inspiring Gor to a 4-2 win at Afraha.  Last season Rama Salim and David Owino ensured that Gor won this fixture 2-1 so it is a ground that they are comfortable on, having already scored 4 past Chemelil Sugar FC at the beginning of this second leg. During this time Gor has won 40% of their league matches against Ulinzi (6 games) and lost 4 with 5 others ending in draws. Also no team has done a double over the other in a season in this period, a status Gor will be keen to see changed and one that Ulinzi will want to preserve.

So even as Gor marches to its third league trophy in succession (a feat only managed by Ulinzi in modern times since the indomitable AFC Leopards and Gor Mahia teams of the 80s), there will be all to play for and Afraha will be a battle ground come Sunday.

Meddie Kagere and Michael Olunga destroyed the soldiers in the first leg fixture (photo courtesy of Official Gor Mahia)

Gor's Sea Side Travails

Playing Bandari away has always been a difficult fixture for Gor Mahia. In 5 meetings between 2008 and 2014, we have only won 1 game and lost 4, courtesy of a David Owino header in 2013. In those games we have only scored 3 goals, 1 of them being an own goal last year. Apart from David Owino, only Peter Opiyo "Pinchez" has scored for Gor Mahia against the Dockers in Mombasa. That was way back in 2009.

Of the clubs we have played against more than 10 times in the league, it is the one we have amassed the least number of points against. None of our players has ever scored more than one goal against Bandari since 2008, all the 9 goals we have scored against them coming via 8 different players (Meddie, Abondo, Calabar, Blackberry, Macheda, Pinchez and Awilo). Of the clubs we have played atleast 10 or more games against in the league, they are the ones we have scored the least goals against. Forget about the likes of Tusker and Ingwe, of the current teams in the league, Bandari is our nemesis. One would therefore be forgiven for going into this game with much trepidation.

Past encounter against Bandari in Mombasa 

But this is a record breaking and recording chasing Gor Mahia team that has dominated all teams locally this year. Coming off the disappointment of not out-rightly winning against the eternal enemy last weekend, a game that was abandoned thanks to hooligans from our shemejis homes, K'ogalo will be hoping to not only preserve their unbeaten status but also to ensure no team wins any bragging right over them this season. A win will put us on the brink of defending the championship with five games to go (if we avoid defeat against Ulinzi in the next game). And while a draw or even a defeat will not take away our chances of defending the title, the players will know that it is a matter of pride. And what better way there is to relax at the coast than winning. 

Prediction: 1-0 to Gor Mahia. Meddie Kagere

See full stats against Bandari FC HERE

Picture courtesy of gormahia.net

K’Ogalo To Rob Bankers - They Always Do

K’Ogalo resumes league duties this Sunday against KCB after a successful CECAFA Cup outing. Six points ahead of second placed Ulinzi and with 3 games in hand, Gor Mahia are perfectly placed for a third successive league title, their first 3 successive league titles since the 1983-85 seasons and 15^th overall. The only other teams to have achieved this feat are AFC Leopards (1980-82) and Ulinzi Stars (2003-05). Before celebrating that feat however, we have to dispose what is before us and that’s KCB.

Games against KCB have always been an interesting affair with plenty of goals though last season they did hold Gor to a 0-0 draw but one can argue Frank Nuttal was just getting used to the team. Since 2008, we have played KCB 15 times winning 8 and only losing 4. Three of those losses were in 2008, 2009 and 2010 and the fourth loss was after securing the title in 2013. In the process Gor Mahia has scored 22 goals but also conceded 16 – this points to a possibly a high scoring game this Sunday. Below is  a table on our record against KCB since 2008.

Games	Wins	Draws	Loss	GF	GA	G Diff	Points	Av Pt/G %	% wins
15	8	3	4	22	16	6	27	1.8	53.3

Check out detailed stats against KCB HERE

This season Meddie Kagere has already scored twice but it is worth noting that Rama Salim scored an incredible 7 times against KCB in 3 seasons (two of which he only played for half the season) that included a hatrick and double. Gor Mahia defenders have also always found the back of the net against KCB with a remarkable 6 defenders (including goalkeeper George Odhiambo) finding the back of the net out of the 14 players that have scored against KCB since 2008.

He was the scourge of KCB

Prediction: 3-1 to Gor Mahia with one of its strikers to bag a double

Interesting Fact: Should Olunga score a hatrick he will become the second player after Danny Sserunkuma to score 20 goals (in all competitions) in a season for Gor Mahia since 2008. So far he has scored 12 league goals and 5 in CECAFA Cup for a total of 17 goals. 

Photo courtesy of Supersport.com

Demystifying the Thika Myth and Reason to be Wary of Tusker

In 2012, Thika United managed to draw with K’Ogalo thus denying them three points that they needed to win the league. Since then whenever Thika has lined up to take on Gor Mahia, there has been general chest thumping that Thika “ni dawa ya Gor”. Recently someone posted on Facebook the number of trophies Gor Mahia has won against Thika’s, which went something like 30 trophies to 0. Of course as expected someone mentioned the fact that Thika’s history is much more recent and so I decided to take a look at the head to head between the two clubs since 2008 and see whether over the years Thika has really been dawa ya Gor. Just to have something to compare it to, I threw in our next opponent, Tusker, who are the next club to actually challenge us closely for titles after the old enemy AFC Leopards. Well, the results of the comparison only served to reveal that it is indeed a big myth that Thika has caused Gor Mahia any trouble over the past few years and if anything, we need to be more wary of the brewers as opposed to Thika. Take a look at this table (takes into account only league games):

	Games Played	Gor Wins	Gor Losses	Draws	Goals Scored	Goals Conceded	Goal Difference	Points
Thika United	15	8	3	4	16	9	7	28
Tusker FC	14	4	3	7	10	11	-1	19

While we have lost only 3 times to each of them in the last 8 seasons, Tusker has been more frustrating holding us to 7 draws compared to Thika’s  4 draws. We have managed to pick 28 points from Thika, that’s 62.2% of points available compared to 19 points (45.2%) from Tusker.  Our win rate over Thika is 53.3% compared to only 28.6% against Tusker while we have only drawn 26.7% against Thika compared to 50% against Tusker.  It therefore beats no logic for Thika to imagine that they have had any dominance over K’Ogalo. And while fans might think it is a foregone conclusion that Gor will get a result against Tusker in Kisumu, it will be good to keep in mind that Gor has not beaten Tusker in 8 competitive games since Sserunkuma’s solitary goal at the City Stadium in October 2012.

Meanwhile Ali Abondo’s goal brought his tally to 11 goals in league matches for Gor Mahia, bringing him ahead of Baldin Ngwa who had 10 goals. He climbs to fifth behind Danny (36), Rama (21), Blackberry (18) and Kevin Ade Omondi (13) as the leading scorers for the club since the new look KPL began in 2008. 

Ali Abondo has now scored 9 league goals for K'Ogalo this season and 12 career league goals for K'ogalo

A Tale of 3 Coaches - The Stats

I recently overheard fans debate about whom between current coach Frank Nuttal and former coaches Logarusic and Williamson had the better starts at K’Ogalo. The popular belief is that having lost just one game out of his first twenty league games at K’ogalo, Nuttal is the man. Well, I made a mental note to find out what the stats had to say about that.  

My findings, contrary to the outcome of the debate, was that Logarusic had the better start albeit just. In the first 20 games, loga won 14 and amassed 46 points against Nuttal’s 13 wins and 45 points. This translates to a win rate of 70% for Loga compared to 65% for Nuttal. Williamson won 12 and amassed 42 points, a win rate of 60%.

Fans however like an attacking game and if we are to judge an attacking side by the number of goals scored, then we see Nuttals side have the edge, scoring on average 1.75 per game. Loga’s team scored  on average 1.4 goals per game while Bobby’s was 1.25 per game. One might argue that Nuttal had both the benefit of club legend Danny Sserenkuma and the current trio of Kagere, Olunga and Abondo to work with but that’s academic. But is Nuttal just attack minded while Loga and Bobby were masters of defense?  Well, on that front it seems like Bobby was more defensive of the two, conceding just 8 in his first twenty games.

Coach	Wins	Draws	Losses	Points	Win %age	Goals (& ave. pg)	Goals conceded
Zdvarko Logarusic	14	4	2	46	70	28 (1.4)	11 (0.55)
Bobby Williamson	12	6	2	42	60	25 (1.25)	8 (0.4)
Frank Nuttal	13	6	1	45	65	35 (1.75)	12 (0.6)

This is all academic though as at the end of the day success is judged by trophies. Though Logarusic won 2 trophies, when it came to the one that mattered most, both Williamson and Nuttal triumphed where he failed. And now Nuttal has the opportunity to extend his bragging rights by defending the league crown, going unbeaten or even leading the club to CECAFA glory. Only time will tell.

Nuttal doing the business

A Perfect Start for K'Ogalo - Looking at the Numbers

I was at the City Stadium last Saturday to watch Gor Mahia overcome Ulinzi 2-0, courtesy of goals by the strike partnership of Meddie Kagere and Michael Olunga. As we watched the game, the guy seated next to me commented that it’s been a while since he watched Gor make such a strong start to the league. He commented that K’ogalo always start poorly in the league and grow stronger and therefore this should be an omen to the chasing pack. I decided to go back to the stats and see if his claims hold any water. And indeed it did hold water.  Since 2008, this has been K’Ogalo’s strongest start to the league and at this stage they are 6 points better off than last season and 5 points better off than the 2013 season, previously their best start. It is critical to note that both were title winning seasons. The next question then would be which was their worst start? You don’t need to look far, in 2012 we had only accumulated 5 points after 9 games though a magnificent run in the second half of the season saw us finish second, losing the title by a point on the last day to the brewers.

Also not lost on many is the number of goals that we have scoring during this season. Are we scoring more goals than we did at the start of previous seasons? Well so far we have scored 20 goals after 9 matched, nine goals more than at the same stage last year. Below is graph showing how K’Ogalo have performed after 9 games since 2008 season.

Year	Points	Goals	Wins	Draws	Losses
2008	12	5	3	3	2
2009	7	8	2	1	5
2010	14	7	3	5	1
2011	15	10	4	3	2
2012	5	4	1	4	4
2013	18	8	5	3	1
2014	17	11	5	2	2
2015	23	20	7	2	0

Having a strong start is instrumental in winning a league as it makes up for a possible slump as is often wont to happen in any season. It should be noted that last year between 18^th June and 17^th September Gor picked up only 14 points in 10 (30 points) games, including having two runs of 3 games without picking a win but because of a good first half of the season, there was a healthy gap to cushion it from rivals.

The current unbeaten streak continues at 11 games, the last league loss being the 3-2 loss to Sofapaka at Machakos last year. During this time, we have won 9 games, against Muhoroni Youth (3-1), Ushuru (3-0 and 2-0), Mathare (4-2), Bandari (2-1), Chemelil (3-1), KCB (3-1), City Stars (3-0) and Ulinzi (2-0) while drawing only 2 games, against AFC Leopards (1-1) and Sofapaka (0-0). But has this been our best unbeaten run this year? Of course not, we have 8 games to match the 20 game unbeaten run under coach Logarusic between 28^th April 2012 and 27^th March 2013.

On a side note, Meddie Kagere's double against KCB saw him become the 10th K'Ogalo player to score a brace or more in the league since 2008.

Another super performance from Kagere and Olunga (pix from Official Gor Mahia Website)

In the meanwhile, let the green army savour the moment!