Demystifying the Thika Myth and Reason to be Wary of Tusker

In 2012, Thika United managed to draw with K’Ogalo thus denying them three points that they needed to win the league. Since then whenever Thika has lined up to take on Gor Mahia, there has been general chest thumping that Thika “ni dawa ya Gor”. Recently someone posted on Facebook the number of trophies Gor Mahia has won against Thika’s, which went something like 30 trophies to 0. Of course as expected someone mentioned the fact that Thika’s history is much more recent and so I decided to take a look at the head to head between the two clubs since 2008 and see whether over the years Thika has really been dawa ya Gor. Just to have something to compare it to, I threw in our next opponent, Tusker, who are the next club to actually challenge us closely for titles after the old enemy AFC Leopards. Well, the results of the comparison only served to reveal that it is indeed a big myth that Thika has caused Gor Mahia any trouble over the past few years and if anything, we need to be more wary of the brewers as opposed to Thika. Take a look at this table (takes into account only league games):

	Games Played	Gor Wins	Gor Losses	Draws	Goals Scored	Goals Conceded	Goal Difference	Points
Thika United	15	8	3	4	16	9	7	28
Tusker FC	14	4	3	7	10	11	-1	19

While we have lost only 3 times to each of them in the last 8 seasons, Tusker has been more frustrating holding us to 7 draws compared to Thika’s  4 draws. We have managed to pick 28 points from Thika, that’s 62.2% of points available compared to 19 points (45.2%) from Tusker.  Our win rate over Thika is 53.3% compared to only 28.6% against Tusker while we have only drawn 26.7% against Thika compared to 50% against Tusker.  It therefore beats no logic for Thika to imagine that they have had any dominance over K’Ogalo. And while fans might think it is a foregone conclusion that Gor will get a result against Tusker in Kisumu, it will be good to keep in mind that Gor has not beaten Tusker in 8 competitive games since Sserunkuma’s solitary goal at the City Stadium in October 2012.

Meanwhile Ali Abondo’s goal brought his tally to 11 goals in league matches for Gor Mahia, bringing him ahead of Baldin Ngwa who had 10 goals. He climbs to fifth behind Danny (36), Rama (21), Blackberry (18) and Kevin Ade Omondi (13) as the leading scorers for the club since the new look KPL began in 2008. 

Ali Abondo has now scored 9 league goals for K'Ogalo this season and 12 career league goals for K'ogalo

A Tale of 3 Coaches - The Stats

I recently overheard fans debate about whom between current coach Frank Nuttal and former coaches Logarusic and Williamson had the better starts at K’Ogalo. The popular belief is that having lost just one game out of his first twenty league games at K’ogalo, Nuttal is the man. Well, I made a mental note to find out what the stats had to say about that.  

My findings, contrary to the outcome of the debate, was that Logarusic had the better start albeit just. In the first 20 games, loga won 14 and amassed 46 points against Nuttal’s 13 wins and 45 points. This translates to a win rate of 70% for Loga compared to 65% for Nuttal. Williamson won 12 and amassed 42 points, a win rate of 60%.

Fans however like an attacking game and if we are to judge an attacking side by the number of goals scored, then we see Nuttals side have the edge, scoring on average 1.75 per game. Loga’s team scored  on average 1.4 goals per game while Bobby’s was 1.25 per game. One might argue that Nuttal had both the benefit of club legend Danny Sserenkuma and the current trio of Kagere, Olunga and Abondo to work with but that’s academic. But is Nuttal just attack minded while Loga and Bobby were masters of defense?  Well, on that front it seems like Bobby was more defensive of the two, conceding just 8 in his first twenty games.

Coach	Wins	Draws	Losses	Points	Win %age	Goals (& ave. pg)	Goals conceded
Zdvarko Logarusic	14	4	2	46	70	28 (1.4)	11 (0.55)
Bobby Williamson	12	6	2	42	60	25 (1.25)	8 (0.4)
Frank Nuttal	13	6	1	45	65	35 (1.75)	12 (0.6)

This is all academic though as at the end of the day success is judged by trophies. Though Logarusic won 2 trophies, when it came to the one that mattered most, both Williamson and Nuttal triumphed where he failed. And now Nuttal has the opportunity to extend his bragging rights by defending the league crown, going unbeaten or even leading the club to CECAFA glory. Only time will tell.

Nuttal doing the business

A Perfect Start for K'Ogalo - Looking at the Numbers

I was at the City Stadium last Saturday to watch Gor Mahia overcome Ulinzi 2-0, courtesy of goals by the strike partnership of Meddie Kagere and Michael Olunga. As we watched the game, the guy seated next to me commented that it’s been a while since he watched Gor make such a strong start to the league. He commented that K’ogalo always start poorly in the league and grow stronger and therefore this should be an omen to the chasing pack. I decided to go back to the stats and see if his claims hold any water. And indeed it did hold water.  Since 2008, this has been K’Ogalo’s strongest start to the league and at this stage they are 6 points better off than last season and 5 points better off than the 2013 season, previously their best start. It is critical to note that both were title winning seasons. The next question then would be which was their worst start? You don’t need to look far, in 2012 we had only accumulated 5 points after 9 games though a magnificent run in the second half of the season saw us finish second, losing the title by a point on the last day to the brewers.

Also not lost on many is the number of goals that we have scoring during this season. Are we scoring more goals than we did at the start of previous seasons? Well so far we have scored 20 goals after 9 matched, nine goals more than at the same stage last year. Below is graph showing how K’Ogalo have performed after 9 games since 2008 season.

Year	Points	Goals	Wins	Draws	Losses
2008	12	5	3	3	2
2009	7	8	2	1	5
2010	14	7	3	5	1
2011	15	10	4	3	2
2012	5	4	1	4	4
2013	18	8	5	3	1
2014	17	11	5	2	2
2015	23	20	7	2	0

Having a strong start is instrumental in winning a league as it makes up for a possible slump as is often wont to happen in any season. It should be noted that last year between 18^th June and 17^th September Gor picked up only 14 points in 10 (30 points) games, including having two runs of 3 games without picking a win but because of a good first half of the season, there was a healthy gap to cushion it from rivals.

The current unbeaten streak continues at 11 games, the last league loss being the 3-2 loss to Sofapaka at Machakos last year. During this time, we have won 9 games, against Muhoroni Youth (3-1), Ushuru (3-0 and 2-0), Mathare (4-2), Bandari (2-1), Chemelil (3-1), KCB (3-1), City Stars (3-0) and Ulinzi (2-0) while drawing only 2 games, against AFC Leopards (1-1) and Sofapaka (0-0). But has this been our best unbeaten run this year? Of course not, we have 8 games to match the 20 game unbeaten run under coach Logarusic between 28^th April 2012 and 27^th March 2013.

On a side note, Meddie Kagere's double against KCB saw him become the 10th K'Ogalo player to score a brace or more in the league since 2008.

Another super performance from Kagere and Olunga (pix from Official Gor Mahia Website)

In the meanwhile, let the green army savour the moment!

A Hatrick of Perfect Starts as Olunga, Abondo joins the Double Boys

The Kenyan Premier League finally kicked off over the weekend despite the stalemate dogging KPL and FKF over the number of teams to be in the league. Having already played two competitive games, K’ogalo began their title defense with a 4-2 victory over Mathare United courtesy of a brace each by the returning boy Ali Abondo and new signing Michael Olunga. A few years began there was talk that Gor Mahia rarely won their first league games, a jinx that was seemingly broken in 2012 with a 2-0 win over Thika. I have checked the records and can indeed confirm that between between 2003 and 2012, Gor had indeed found it difficult to win their opening games having won only once, beating Homegrown 4-2. Since 2012, the Victory against the slum boys was our 3^rd consecutive opening day victory. The following are our opening day results over the last 10 years.

2005 Lost to Kangemi United 1-2

2006 Drew with Securicor 1-1

2007 Won against Homegrown 4-2

2008  Lost to KCB 0-1

2009 Lost to Ulinzi 0-1

2010 Drew with Western Stima 0-0

2011 Lost to Rangers 3-0

2012 Won against Thika 0-2

2013 Won against Sofapaka 1-0

2014 Won against City Stars 2-0

2015 Won against Mathare United 4-2

As you can see from the results over the year, this result also matched our biggest opening day victory which was way back in 2007.

Ali Abondo on the double

(Pic courtesy of http://www.gormahiafc.co.ke/)

Seeing two players net a brace each also got me checking on the last game we had two players each score two goals. Well there have not been many games we have scored more than 4 goals and one would therefore have to look beyond 2008 for two doubles in a league game. Unfortunately my records for goal scorers are not comprehensive pre-2008. However in 2013 both Dan Sserenkuma and Kevin Omondi Ade helped themselves to two apiece in the 6-0 walloping of Shabana during a FKF GOTv Shield match. Ali Abondo and Michael Olunga however joins a select club of the double boys and since 2008, bringing the number of the double boys to 9. The members of this club are

1. Danny Sserenkuma (8)
2. Duncan Owiti (3)
3. Rama Salim (2)
4. George Odhiambo Blackberry (2) 
5. Kevin Omondi (2)
6. Baldin Ngwa (1)
7. Paul Kiongera (1)
8. Ali Abondo (1)
9. Michael Olunga (1)

      

      The following table gives a breakdown of the doubles

Date	Player	Team
21 Feb 2015	Michael Olunga	Mathare United
21 Feb 2015	Ali Abondo (2)	Mathare United
4 Oct 2014	Dan Sserenkuma (3)	City Stars
20 Sep 2014	Dan Sserenkuma (2)	Chemelil
19 July 2014	Dan Sserenkuma (2)	AFC Leopards
11 Sep 2013	Kevin Omondi (2)	Shabana
11 Sep 2013	Dan Sserenkuma (2)	Shabana
2 Mar 2013	Paul Kiongera (2)	Anse Re-union
4 Nov 2012	Dan Sserenkuma (3)	Muhoroni Youth
22 Sep, 2012	Dan Sserenkuma (2)	AFC Leopards
17 Aug, 2012	Dan Sserenkuma (2)	Mathare United
21 Jul, 2012	Dan Sserenkuma (2)	City Stars
8 Jul, 2012	Rama Salim (3)	KCB
12 may, 2012	Rama Salim (2)	KCB
17 Apr, 2011	Kevin Omondi (2)	Thika United
11 Jul, 2010	George Odhiambo (2)	Chemelil
3 Apr, 2010	Duncan Owiti (2)	Mahakama
8 Nov, 2009	Duncan Owiti (2)	KCB
27 Sep, 2009	Baldin Ngwa (2)	Red Berets
2 May, 2009	Duncan Owiti (2)	Mathare United
25 Apr, 2009	George Odhiambo (2)	Red Berets

Trivia: When was the last time K’ogalo scored more than 3 goals in a league game without a foreigner scoring? 

Danny The Legend – Saying Good Bye

When Danny Sserenkuma was signed by coach Logarusic during the mid season transfer period in 2012, many would have imagined him becoming a cult hero among the K’ogalo faithful. 45 goals later (36 in the league and 9 in the Cups) in two and a half seasons, interrupted by two trial leaves in Europe, Danny leaves Gor Mahia having established himself in every K’ogalo faithful’s heart. His closest challenger in goal scoring exploits for the club in the last six years is Rama Salim (with whom he formed a potent duo in the second half of 2012) with only 26 goals – 19 behind Danny, this just underlines how his importance for Sirkal has been.

The following is a breakdown of Danny’s goals compared to other K’ogalo marksmen from 2008.

Top 5 goal scorers overall:

1. Danny Sserunkuma – 45
2. Rama Salim – 26
3. George Odhiambo – 18
4. Kevin Omondi – 18
5. Edwin Lavatsa – 14

Top 5 goal scorers League:

1. Danny Sserunkuma – 36
2. Rama Salim – 21
3. George Odhiambo – 18
4.  Kevin Omondi – 13
5. Baldin Ngwa – 10

Top 5 goal scorers Cups:

1. Danny Sserunkuma – 9
2. Edwin Lavatsa – 8
3. Rama Salim – 5
4. Kevin Omondi – 5
5. Moses Odhiambo – 5

So just how did Danny distribute his 45 goals among clubs? 16 clubs were able to face Danny’s wrath with our old enemy Ingwe being specifically targeted. Together with City Stars, they leaked the most number of goals against Danny. Ingwe conceded two doubles against Sserunkuma and he made sure each year they tasted his goals. City Stars on the other hand conceded one hatrick and one double from Danny. The other clubs that he specifically targeted for punishment were Muhoroni Youth, Mathare United, Thika and Western Stima.

The following is a list of all the teams he scored against and the goals they conceded.

1.  AFC Leopards – 6
2. City Stars – 6
3. Mathare – 5
4. Muhoroni – 5
5. Thika – 4
6. Western Stima – 4
7. Chemelil – 3
8. Tusker – 2
9. Sofapaka – 2
10. Shabana – 2
11. Karuturi – 1
12. Sony – 1
13. KRA – 1
14. US Bitam (Gabon) – 1
15. Esperance (Tunisia) – 1
16. KCCA (Uganda) – 1

During his two and half season’s at Gor Mahia, Danny banged in 2 hatricks and 7 doubles against the following teams.

Hatricks:

1.  Muhoroni Youth, league, 2012
2. City Stars, league, 2014

Doubles

1. AFC Leopards, KPL, 2012
2. AFC Leopards,KPL, 2014
3. Chemelil, KPL, 2014
4. Shabana, FKF Cup, 2013
5. Western Stima, FKF Cup, 2013
6. Mathare, KPL, 2012
7. City Stars, KPL, 2012

Of Danny’s goals, my favourite moments includes the double against Ingwe in 2012 when we managed to overtake them in the league, the goal against Sofapaka that clinched us the title in 2013 and the breakaway goal that downed Ingwe in 2013 when the game looked like it might run away from us. Which are your favourite Danny goals?

Photo from Official Gor Mahia Website

The Boys With The Golden Boots

Over the last one month, our boy Danny Sserunkuma has scored four goals, one in the league and three in the FKF cup to establish himself as one of Kógalo's premier predator in the new KPL era. And it is no surprise that his single league goal was the customary one against the old enemy, AFC Leopards. Last year Dani gave us all his 12 goals in the league but this season he has shared his 7 goals around, 4 in the league and 3 in the FKF Cup, now known as GoTV Shield. Since joining Gor last season, Dani has banged in 19 goals, making him the second highest scorer for K'ogalo in the KPL era, just one goal shy off Rama Salim. He is also joint second highest scorer for K'ogalo in the league tied in with George Odhiambo "Blackberry" on 16 goals, again 1 shy off Rama Salim who scored 17 before his departure to the Middle East.

Scoring against Leopards has become a ritual for Danny Sserunkuma

Another player that has reached a landmark this season is Kevin Omondi whose 7 goals for K'ogalo this season makes him joint top scorer with Danny. Ade has scored 4 goals in the league, 2 in the GoTV Shield and 1 in the CAF Confederation Cup, his richest vein of form for K'ogalo. This has brought his total goals for K'ogalo to 17 with 12 of those coming in the league, 4 in domestic cup and 1 in the CAF Confederations Cup.

If these two players continue like this, they will both be getting their 20th goals for K'ogalo.

Below is the list of K'ogalo sharp shooters over the last few years.

KPL League

1. Rama Salim - 17
2. George Odhiambo "Blackberry" - 16
3. Danny Sserunkuma - 16
4. Kevin Omondi - 12
5. Baldin Ngwa - 10

All Competitions

1. Rama Salim - 20
2. Danny Sserunkuma - 19
3. Kevin Omondi - 17
4. George Odhiambo "Blackberry"- 16
5. Edwin Lavatsa - 12